Brent oil price, relevant to Europe, increased in the last 3 weeks, but the recent RON appreciation could stop a possible fuel price rises, has been shown in an analysis.
Brent oil began in 2013 at a price of 111.32 dollars/barrel, reaching the maximum for the current year in February, when it got closer to 120 dollars/ barrel.
"Neither the real global economy nor speculations in the financial world could not sustain this price, so, starting with the second month of this year, oil has gone on a downward trend, with very few short attempts to stabilize below 100 dollars/ barrel, but unsuccessfully ", said Silviu Pojar, Noble Securities Sales Manager - branch Romania, in a release issued for Ziare.com.
Statements of the President of the Federal Reserve (FED) in June have acted on oil prices in two stages. Initially, after the announcement of the possibility of reducing the financial incentives in 2013, oil decreased mainly due to the strengthening of the U.S. dollar. In general, oil is appreciated by investors when the dollar falls, but this is not the case.
Then, after the first days of "shock", investors have interpreted FED statements as reinforcing perceptions of U.S. economic recovery - the largest consumer of oil in the world - which has boosted the global demand for oil, prices starting to rise.
"Along with mainly positive news concerning the U.S. economy, there also have been other factors which supported in their turn the general increase of oil price: on one hand, the holiday period generally increases the global demand for fuel, and leaving for holidays and relative expenses are good news both for consumption, and in terms of public confidence in a positive economic development.
The situation in Egypt has helped in its turn the oil price to increase, in terms of concerns about the potential opportunity that tensions will expand in the region", said Silviu Pojar.
Last week Brent oil price reached the maximum of recent months, in a price area untouched after early days of April (107-109 dollars/barrel).
RON evolution and fuel prices forecast
As for the RON, it fluctuated in recent weeks on the financial markets around the range of RON 3.45 to RON 3.47 for 1 dollar, thus exceeding the limit from early April, when the quote was between 3,42 - 3,45 RON/unit.
FED President's speech last Wednesday, however, which showed that U.S. authorities still do not hurry to significantly reduce monetary stimulus, led to the depreciation of the U.S. dollar, so including RON "has benefited " from this evolution: national currency ended the week last with a quote of RON 3.3774 for a U.S. dollar, which is under the limit in early April.
"Thus, while oil prices increased in recent weeks, we expect the recent 'surprise' appreciation of RON against the U.S. dollar to reduce for the moment the possibility of further increases (significant) of fuel prices in Romania in the near future.