"In February oil marked a decrease of 4%, in March has been volatile, but at the end of the month it had a price almost equal to the one from its beginning. In April (from 1 to 18 April included) the price of oil has dropped by about 9.5%, "said Silviu Measles, Noble Securities Sales Manager – Romania branch, member of the European Financial Getin Noble Bank & Getin Holding group of Companies.
Several factors contributed to this decline in oil prices, according to the press release of
In the first place, the International Monetary Fund cut its estimate for global growth and drew the attention to the situation getting worse in some European countries.
In addition, China's economy grew in the last quarter in a rhythm below the expectations of analysts and investors, while the EU and the euro area still have unresolved structural problems giving no sign that any recovery will take place soon.
Relying on the poor economic signals on the global economy, the most important organizations in the oil field have recently reduced their global oil demand forecast for the current year.
Moreover, the U.S. dollar appreciated on all fronts (especially against the euro and yen), through which generally the investor’s interest for goods whose price is reported on the dollar decreases.
"It's hard to believe that major oil-producing countries will have no reaction to an accelerated decline in oil prices: do not forget that their national budgets for the current year took into account certain oil quotes and currency variations consequently so that reduced production of oil could be considered, ultimately, to boost the price.
It is clear that the world economy does not have a rhythm to support oil quotations more than 110 dollars per barrel and producers and investors are likely to be significantly affected by a price well below $ 100 per barrel. Around this time a "battle" will be held on oil prices in the next period, unless other fundamentals will appear to tilt the balance quickly in one direction or another ", said Silviu Pojar.
In April, together with the decrease of oil prices, the Romanian currency appreciated against the U.S. dollar by about 3%.
Oil companies present in Romania have already operated price reductions on the fuel lately: for example, a certain type of gasoline, which on April 6 was 5,91lei / liter, reached on 16 April at 5.73 lei / liter, marking a decrease of 3.14%.
"Of course the arithmetic of fuel prices does not involve an exclusively dependent relationship to the price of oil and the quote of currency against the U.S. dollar: for example, tax duties and VAT represents an important rate of fuel prices (almost half, according to certain oil companies).
However, significant decrease of oil prices together with the strengthening of the national currency gives way, most likely, to a further reduction of fuel prices in the near future, in the absence of some developments to determine price movements in the opposite direction for each variable ", said Silviu Pojar.
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